3 and 41 are all there because of dumb luck. 24 to a lesser degree.
Stock pickers:
12 = 10, 7 ↑
14 = 18, 12 ↑
24 = 23, 11 ↑
21 = 29, 22 ↑
1 = 7, 13 ↓
10 = 5, 14 ↓
Long run form suggests that Austin Dillon is a middling driver but not top 12 material. Cole Custer to have made it this far is absolutely stellar.
Blaney, Bowyer, Byron and Guido are all still on the up.
Kurt Busch is kind of tooling about in a team that is like a twig in the wind and has looked directionless for a very long time.
Aric Almirola is basically fooling nobody at this point. Bowyer is way beyond his peak. If you remove the wrecks, Almirola is 12.5 and Bowyer is 18.5 but Bowyer seems to be able to pull out just enough to make it into the 12.
I'm picking: 1, 3, 10, 41 for the drop.
(and also Custer to be champion before the decade is out)