1st 4 Out of the Chase

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Cola83

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Jan 10, 2018
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Who do you all think are the 1st 4 out of the Chase?

I think the 41 - 10 - 21, are locks, but a toss up between the 14 and 3 for the 4th out, Only beacuse the 14 runs well at Richmond.
 

Rollo75

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Dec 1, 2018
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No.
3 and 41 are all there because of dumb luck. 24 to a lesser degree.

Stock pickers:
12 = 10, 7 ↑
14 = 18, 12 ↑
24 = 23, 11 ↑
21 = 29, 22 ↑

1 = 7, 13 ↓
10 = 5, 14 ↓

Long run form suggests that Austin Dillon is a middling driver but not top 12 material. Cole Custer to have made it this far is absolutely stellar.

Blaney, Bowyer, Byron and Guido are all still on the up.

Kurt Busch is kind of tooling about in a team that is like a twig in the wind and has looked directionless for a very long time.
Aric Almirola is basically fooling nobody at this point. Bowyer is way beyond his peak. If you remove the wrecks, Almirola is 12.5 and Bowyer is 18.5 but Bowyer seems to be able to pull out just enough to make it into the 12.

I'm picking: 1, 3, 10, 41 for the drop.

(and also Custer to be champion before the decade is out)
 

Squared

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Nov 12, 2018
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12 - Yep, Blaney's gonna get knocked out in the first round. A disastrous Darlington has left them in a hole, and based on his history at Richmond, this gap will likely grow. Bristol is his best chance; he's wrecked out of the lead two times that I can think of, if he can finally catch a break then maybe he can claw his way back out.

14 - The 14 team has not shown good enough speed pretty much this whole season. I've just got a feeling that they're gonna be out of it.

21 - This team has shown zero signs of life. Although they did what they had to do at Daytona, the two Dover races before, and the Darlington race after, give me zero confidence in this team. You could point to Bristol as being his chance but he wasn't really that competitive our last two trips there (and he will have to win this race to move on).

41 - Does anybody think Cole's gonna make it through? Although this team has improved considerably from where they started the year, they're still nowhere near what it takes to move on. Overall, a successful rookie campaign.
 

ddrap14

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Dec 26, 2019
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Matty D - 35th, 35th, 29th, 22nd, 16+
Wood 21 - 21st, 9th, 19th, 19th, 16+

Whatever Matty D has done, he's pulled the team upwards from below the cut line to inside it.

And you also have to remember that that 9th was with Ryan Blaney, who's one of the top NASCAR drivers now.
 

Rollo75

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Dec 1, 2018
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No.
Really... you think Custer will be a Champion in the next 10 years??? I can see that only if he is driving for a Top Tier Team.

The current points leader and regular season champion also has a 4 on his door?
Happy is older than I am; Shifty is younger than I - I can see them both retiring before '25.

Actually, of the current SHR drivers, Cold Custard is the only one that I can picture still being there in '25.
 
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